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                                                                                                                                                                          真钱21点游戏:中信建投:价格回落加快 社融或见企稳

                                                                                                                                                                              预计PPI同比增速降至零值附近。1月生产资料价格指数、大宗商品价格指数、CRB指数环比均有一定,回落,似乎与近期大宗商品价格企稳反弹的直观感受有些差异,背后的原因在于,2018年12月至2019年1月份多数大宗商品价格走势基本是“V”型反转,在12月初还是处于比较高的水平。根据行业高频数据测算,1月PPI环比增速-0.8%左右,同比增速降至-0.2%左右。即便考虑测算误差因素,PPI同比增速大概率位于零值附近,应该低于去年末、今年初的市场主流预期。

                                                                                                                                                                          预计CPI同比增速回落至2%以内。分项看,猪肉与鲜果价格加快回落,鲜菜与蛋类价格增速平稳,牛肉与羊肉价格同比增速持续回升。春节因素对食品价格影响不明显,预计食品价格同比增速2.1%左右,较上月回落0.4个百分点左右,拖累CPI同比增速近1个百分点。非食品价格以回落为主,其中交通工具用燃料同比增速回落明显,预计拖累CPI同比0.1个百分点左右。综合考虑,预计1月CPI同比增速1.8%左右,较上月回落近0.2个百分点。即便考虑测算误差因素,CPI同比增速大概率低于2%,应该低于去年末、今年初的市场主流预期。

                                                                                                                                                                          预计社融增速大致持平,企稳或将出现。从历史数据看,信贷与社融数据具有较明显的季节性规律,在预测时可以利用这种规律。基于这一思路推测,预计1月份贷款新增规律约2.9万亿,新口径社融新增社融规模约3.27万亿,同比增速约9.8%,与上月大致持平。从结构上看,由于同比上年新增规模较大,地方专项债对社融增速支撑明显。

                                                                                                                                                                          预计出口增速反弹,进口增速继续回落。外需方面,PMI指数显示外部需求大致持平。从基数角度看,上年1月出口环比增速显著低于历史水平,低基数对1月同比增速构成支撑。不确定因素依旧来自于企业微观行为的变化。综合考虑,预计1月出口同比增速可能有所反弹。进口方面,国内需求回落以及油价等大宗商品价格下跌均构成压制,同时去年基数明显偏高也会拖累同比增速。综合考虑,预计美元计价的进口增速继续回落。